An Inflation Follow-Up

October 12, 2021

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 13.5%; the NASDAQ Composite 13.1%; the small-cap Russell 2000 13.0%; the Mid-Cap 400 16.6%; and the DJ Global ex U.S. up 4.4%.[1] As we wrote is the September monthly letter, the S&P 500's trailing 20 rate of return ending September 10 was 7.5% per year and 9.6% with dividend reinvested.[2]

September Living Up To Its Reputation So Far

September 21, 2021

The markets, both equity and debt, are under pressure so far this month. We see lower valuations as a positive for longer-term investing. For the first two weeks plus of the month, the S&P 500 eased off 2.7% and with bond weakness the Dow Jones Utility Average has dropped 3.3% - a rare development with weakness by both equities and equity sensitive to debt. As of last Friday, the U.S. 10 year Treasury rate yield rose as high as 1.38%.[1]

The concerns include a COVID surge in fatalities of more than 2000 daily, the most since March 15.[2] Federal Reserve taper talk to be reported by Wednesday. Currently, the Fed has been buying $80 billion of Treasury's and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month since last June[3]; the growing debt problems in China are coming to light; and of course, expensive markets lead to increased volatility, especially for traders.

Will the Sugar Rush Continue?

September 13, 2021

The national holiday of Labor Day honors and recognizes the American labor movement along with the works and contributions of laborers towards the economic growth of the U.S.. The celebration, which started in the late 1800s, was promoted by the Central Labor Union and the Knights of Labor, both of New York City.[1] On June 28, 1894, Congress legislated that the first Monday in September each year would be recognized as Labor Day. Americans celebrate the holiday with parades, picnics, and parties.

3Q 2021 :: Typical September

Quarterly Update

After a very good stretch of gains, the U.S. stock market "allowed" investor anxieties get the better of it. For the month the S&P 500 eased 4.8%, its largest monthly decline since March 2020. The DJIA fell 4.3% while the NASDAQ Composite gave up 5.3%.[1] With the last day of the month and the third quarter, the S&P 500 ended 5.1% below its September 2 record close at 4,536.[2] Concerns remain, including inflation, supply-chain bottlenecks, the highly contagious Delta variant, economic outlook uncertainties, and a possible stalemate on the multi-trillion spending package in Washington, D.C..



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